John Carvalho@BitcoinErrorLog

Good morning, when people start saying "game theory" to defend their arguments it is usually just bullshit meant to make them sound smart, and to make ignorance appear as confidence, all to convince you to defer to them.


John Carvalho@BitcoinErrorLog

The game theory topics you see in Twitter and about Bitcoin are very often total bullshit.

The problem with game theory applied to systems is it makes two huge assumptions: - perfect / evenly distributed information to all players - rational behavior


John Carvalho@BitcoinErrorLog

These are silly assumptions in many, many human interactions.

Everyone is ignorant about some things, and people are rarely working with the same mental models, value systems, or understanding.


John Carvalho@BitcoinErrorLog

An even larger problem is that essentially all of life and society is a game consisting of many subgames and meta games and game sets.

It is very difficult (nearly impossible) to model and predict outcomes for multi-game systems.


John Carvalho@BitcoinErrorLog

People try to isolate single games to simplify & make game theory applicable, but this results in incorrect assumptions and outcomes.

“In theory, theory and practice are the same. In practice, they are not.” ~Einstein


John Carvalho@BitcoinErrorLog

So when someone says to you that "the game theory" is sound/weak, assume they are full of shit and demand a greater mental model you can actually reason within.

People are complicated, irrational, and have variable incentives.


John Carvalho@BitcoinErrorLog

The only real proof there is that something is "incentive-compatible" is observing that the behavior in question persists despite other options being available.


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